Industrial Metals
The industrial metals continue to be affected by the fall of the euro and by worst indicators from the U.S.. The prospects of a recovery at the global impacted positively on the estimates of demand for copper and steel, they maintain a close relationship with the economic cycle.
Given that are the main raw material of the industry, any fall in production levels impact directly on their price. The slowdown in GDP at global level led to a collapse in its price, which touched their flat in February 2009.
To measure in the household consumption is recomposed, industries producing more and demanded more raw materials. At the end of 2009, the Commodity Index of the IMF advanced 40 percent, driven by an increase of 70% of the oil and 60 per cent of the precious metals. It should be noted that in real terms the index is located 25 per cent below the peak in July 2008.
The optimism about a stronger growth in global level, and especially in countries like China and India, led to the copper recorded an increase of more than 150% while the steel did so in a 26 per cent in 2009 between tip.
In general, based on the CRB Index, the commodities had risen by 23 per cent during the same period. Clearly the copper had a performance much higher than the rest, while the steel was slightly higher.
The recovery was mainly by emerging countries with a growth above the estimated the global economy, which led to the rally in the price of metals outside greater respect of the corresponding to the departure of other crises.
However, within these increases also included the factor expectations. This was reflected in an increase during 2009 in investment in assets linked with commodities.
This year, presents a very different from the past and these metals showed a performance heterogeneous. While the steel continues to progress (18 per cent in the year), copper declined by 10 per cent.
In the next figure can be seen that the curves of future shows us two distinct trends. On the one hand, the steel recorded a curve with positive slope. Thus, the expectations are upwards for this commodity. As for the copper, the slope is negative, so it is estimated a negative trend for the price of target.
Three central are questioning the sustainability of a stronger growth in industrial sector at global level. First, Europe and its austerity measures could slow growth of the economies of the region.
In turn, China, and the adjustments made in its monetary policy could have a contractionary effect in the evolution of its economy. Finally, the United States, began to show figures somewhat disappointing, especially in the property sector.